Around the bottom of the real estate market with brighter days ahead

In this episode, I interview Ben Miller, the company’s CEO Fundrisediscussing his revised view of the real estate market for 2024 and beyond.

2023 was a challenging year for institutional real estate investors, marked by 11 rate hikes and a significant increase in mortgage rates starting in the first quarter of 2022. As a result, institutional real estate prices declined.

Ben believes that October 2023 represents the lowest point for the property market after experiencing 18 months of continuous decline. His current optimism stems from the expected decline in interest rates.

The following table provides a brief summary of his view and outlook.

Institutional Real Estate Market Outlook 2024 by Ben Miller, CEO of Fundrise - Interest Rate and Real Estate Price Charts

In this episode of the real estate market, we explore several key topics:

  1. The reasoning behind Ben’s belief that October 2023 marked the bottom, and the least obvious indicators supporting that perspective.
  2. Understanding the motivation why some sell near the bottom
  3. The ability to use one fund’s cash to support a business in which another fund invests.
  4. Ben’s insights on investing in deeply discounted office property.
  5. Drawing parallels between e-commerce and the work-from-home trend, highlighting the potential for continued increases in residential real estate values.
  6. Emphasizing the importance of investing in alignment with macroeconomic tailwinds, not headwinds.
  7. Discussion of the potential growth percentage of institutional real estate prices for 2024 and 2025.
  8. Researching the methodology for calculating the net asset value (NAV) of specific properties within the fund.
  9. We recognize the non-linear nature of significant change and the importance of staying invested to capitalize on highly catalytic moments.
  10. Reflecting on Ray Dalio’s perspective – “I’d rather be approximately right than exactly wrong” – especially in the context of year-end interest rate forecasting.
  11. Given the view that a recession may be bullish for real estate due to the potential for a rapid and widespread decline in interest rates.

You can listen to the episode at Apple, Spotifygold Google. Or you can click on the embedded player below. If you listen to mine previous episode with himhe was definitely more bearish.

If you want to dollar cost average your Fundrise fund, you can do so by clicking here. The minimum investment is $10. Financial Samurai is an investor in Fundrise and Fundrise is a long-term sponsor of Financial Samurai.

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