Natural gas bulls were treated for a cold in the overnight forecast as futures gained ground early

Increased November frost in key demand markets in updated forecasts lifted natural gas futures to early gains on Tuesday. The Nymex December contract was up 7.2 cents at $3.424/MMBtu by 8:42 a.m. ET, after falling 13.1 cents in the previous session.

Both the U.S. and European weather models added a degree of warming to the overnight outlook, largely reflecting the increased cold associated with a system expected to move across the Midwest and East Nov. 9-11, NatGasWeather told clients early on Tuesday.

“If it wasn’t for the very weak demand this weekend into early next week and again from November 12-15, the model would have been scarier,” NatGasWeather said. “Based on that, the weather data over the past 24 hours has been cooler,” which could help “prices find support today.”

While milder conditions before and after the cold snap of Nov. 9 and 11 likely limited the market’s reaction in early trading, the firm noted that “the theme of the past month has been for cooler trends to emerge early.”

If the Nov. 12-15 period subsequently added heating demand, “it would go a long way” toward a reversal of bullish sentiment, according to the firm.

“Traders need to be on the lookout for midday readings to be further cooler or warmer” for the 8-15 day outlook, NatGasWeather added.

Maxar’s Weather Desk characterized the updated six- to 10-day outlook as changeable for the eastern Lower 48.

“Low pressure tracks from the northwest this weekend into the midwest and east early to mid next week,” the forecaster said. “Today’s changes are to this storm system, with temperatures being warmer” ahead of the system and “cooler, with below normal temperatures, after it passes.” Overall, this leaves the season cooler than the previous one from the Midwest south.”

For the 11- to 15-day time frame, Maxar said below-normal temperatures in the eastern half of the country should ease by the end of that period.

The forecaster observed “small cooler details along the northern level and warmer in the south. High pressure settles in the eastern half at the beginning of the period; and as Canadian air is pulled aloft, temperatures drop below normal together. Alternatively, above-normal temperatures accumulate in the western cover during the early stages of the season, downstream of the trough over the Gulf of Alaska.

Meanwhile, for the upcoming release of storage data, covering the week ending October 27, NGI is modeling an injection of 82 Bcf. By comparison, the previous year construction was 99 Bcf, while the five-year average is 57 Bcf injection.

Lower working gas 48 in underground storage was 3,700 Bcf as of Oct. 20, up 183 Bcf from the five-year average, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

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